As war looms Israel calls for 1.1m people to evacuate northern Gaza

The warning is dire, its implications almost biblical. Just before midnight on October 12th Israel told the United Nations that the whole of northern Gaza, home to roughly 1.1m people, should be evacuated within 24 hours. It then issued the same ultimatum directly to Gazans, telling them to flee south of Wadi Gaza, a riverbed that bisects the territory. “You will be able to return to Gaza City only when another announcement permitting it is made,” the army said in a statement.

What started as an unspeakable crime on October 7th, when Palestinian militants crossed the border and murdered more than 1,300 Israelis, most of them civilians, may now lead to unimaginable catastrophe in Gaza. “The United Nations considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences,” says Stéphane Dujarric, a UN spokesman.

The Israeli edict is probably a prelude to increased aerial bombardment, which has already killed more than 1,500 Gazans over the past week, and perhaps limited special-forces raids to hunt militant leaders. Israel has spent the week preparing for what appears to be a major ground invasion, mobilising 360,000 reservists and moving armour and other equipment to staging posts in the south of Israel. But army sources say it may be several more days before Israel goes ahead with its attack plan. They also acknowledge the exodus will take longer than a day: “We understand it won’t take 24 hours,” says Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, an army spokesman.

Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza and carried out the October 7th attack, called the Israeli statement “fake propaganda” and urged Palestinians to stay put. Some may be unable to leave. Others may decide not to. Most of the 2m people in Gaza are descended from refugees displaced during Israel’s 1948 war of independence; now they are being told to accept another displacement.

Even if many Palestinians do wish to flee, the exodus will be a logistical nightmare. Refugee camps in northern Gaza, such as Shati and Jabaliya, are among the most densely populated places in the world, warrens of cramped houses and narrow alleys with more than 50,000 people per square kilometre. Evacuating them would take time.

The distance from north of Gaza City to the southern half of the territory is not far, around 14km. But only two roads run the length of Gaza, one on the coast and another inland. Both may have been damaged by Israeli air strikes (there have been reports of bombing near the coastal road).

Most Gazans are too poor to afford private cars, relying instead on a limited fleet of private taxis and buses. Petrol is in short supply. If civilians can reach the south, it is unclear where they will shelter. Southern Gaza has built-up areas around Rafah and Khan Younis, but large parts of it are farmland. Civilians may end up sleeping rough in fields, with little access to food or clean water.

Not that there is much of that in the north, either. Israel has imposed a total closure on Gaza, cutting off the supply of food, fuel and electricity. Gaza’s sole power plant ran out of fuel and shut down on October 11th. The blackout means there is no power to run pumps, and the UN says 650,000 people are already facing a “severe shortage” of drinking water. Shops are running out of food; half of Gaza’s bakeries have less than a week’s worth of flour.

Several Arab countries are preparing to send medical supplies and other aid to Gaza via Egypt, which should start to arrive this weekend. The first shipment of supplies has already landed at an airstrip at el-Arish in Sinai, around 45km west of Gaza. The UN’s World Food Programme has called for the establishment of humanitarian corridors to allow it to send aid safely.

Egypt has been categorical in its refusal to accept refugees from Gaza. Hours before the Israeli announcement Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, the Egyptian president, said Gazans should “stay steadfast and remain on their land”. Within Egypt’s powerful army, there is a long-held belief that Israel sees Sinai as the solution for its Gaza problem: that it seeks to expel the territory’s population into Egypt. Generals and politicians in Egypt fear that temporary refugees will become permanent ones.

They will also have concerns about security, since Hamas and other groups in Gaza have links to militants in Sinai. And Egypt is already mired in a worsening economic crisis and struggling with an influx of 280,000 refugees from neighbouring Sudan, where a civil war began in April.

America and some Arab countries are pushing Mr Sisi to change his mind. Antony Blinken, the American secretary of state, plans to visit Egypt this weekend as part of a six-country regional tour. They may offer Egypt incentives to relent—and scenes of desperation in Gaza will add to the pressure.

But the reluctance to accept Palestinian refugees runs deep. There is no timeline for the Israeli offensive in Gaza. No one knows when civilians would be allowed to return, or how many would even have homes to return to. It is not only Egypt that worries about a long displacement. Palestinians have the same fear: that fleeing for their lives will mean forever leaving those lives behind.■