Israeli hostages now face a terrifying ordeal

THE NUMBERS boggle the mind. At least 600 Israelis were killed in a single day, more than in the previous 19 years of conflict with the Palestinians. Thousands were injured. Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza, fired some 3,000 rockets at Israel within 24 hours, more than it launched in the first month of their war in 2014. But it is another number, as yet unknown, that may have the greatest impact on how Israel responds to a day of horror.

The Hamas militants who attacked Israel on October 7th also abducted an untold number of Israelis, both civilians and soldiers, and brought them back to Gaza. A few have been identified, either through videos posted to social media or tearful interviews with their families on Israeli television. Many are still unnamed.

Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, has appointed a retired general to oversee the government’s work on the issue. Daniel Hagari, the Israeli army spokesman, says the count is “substantial”. It is thought to number in the dozens, perhaps as many as 100. Hamas itself may not even know how many people were taken captive, or where they all are (though it has promised to release a final tally in the coming days).

It will want to exchange them for Palestinian prisoners, a practice that has a long history in the Israeli-Arab conflict. In 2011 Israel freed 1,027 Palestinians in exchange for Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier captured by Hamas in 2006. Other deals have been macabre: Hizbullah, the Shia militia-cum-political party in Lebanon, in 2008 swapped the bodies of two Israeli soldiers for five living militants and 199 dead ones.

The numbers are far higher this time. Before October 7th Hamas held just two Israeli captives, plus the bodies of two soldiers killed during the 2014 war. Now it has scores of them, both alive and dead. Addameer, a Palestinian NGO, estimates 5,200 Palestinian prisoners are being held in Israeli jails, including more than 1,200 in so-called “administrative detention”—held without charge. “What we have in our hands will release all our prisoners,” Saleh al-Arouri, a hardline Hamas leader, told Al Jazeera on October 7th.

That could prove to be a miscalculation. There is often popular pressure for Israeli governments to free their citizens when they are captured by militants. Polls at the time showed overwhelming support for the deal to free Mr Shalit, despite the lopsided numbers. Hamas will probably start to release propaganda, such as photos and videos of the captives, to increase the pressure on Mr Netanyahu’s government.

Still, Israelis now burying hundreds of their dead may be less than eager to cut a deal with the group which killed them. Security officials, meanwhile, will worry about two things. First is the precedent: to reward the deadliest attack in Israel’s history with a mass prisoner release is to invite someone to try it again. Second is the political impact among Palestinians. Freeing thousands of prisoners would be a boost to Hamas’s popularity—at a time when Fatah, its nationalist rival, is widely loathed.

The other option is to try to free them by force. But that would be difficult. Hamas will surely scatter its prisoners across numerous locations far from the border with Israel. Even if Israel could locate them all, it would need to carry out numerous raids against well-guarded safe houses deep inside Gaza. That would require a large incursion, which the Israeli government is considering but which would also bring the risk of prolonged and bloody urban combat.

Hostages could be killed in the crossfire. Even the air strikes that Israel began shortly after the Hamas attack now risk killing its own citizens. Hamas is unlikely to execute them, since they are more valuable alive than dead. But a ground offensive that threatens its grip on power could lead the group to conclude it has nothing to lose.

A deal would be controversial, and talks could drag on (Mr Shalit spent more than five years in captivity). Raids would be risky. It is an unprecedented situation, and Israeli officials are vexed about how to proceed. Their decision will do much to shape Israel’s overall military strategy in the days and weeks ahead—and determine the fate of the dozens of terrified Israelis now being held captive in Gaza.■