Vladimir Putin pulls Russia out of its last nuclear-arms-control treaty

AMID BOASTFUL claims about the strength of the Russian economy in resisting sanctions and the usual bluster about how it was NATO that started the war in Ukraine and how the West (a sink of depravity where paedophilia is “declared normal”) is striving for “unlimited domination”, Vladimir Putin did make one announcement of substance. In an important speech on February 21st, just before the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion, Mr Putin declared that Moscow would suspend its involvement in New START, the only remaining arms-control agreement between the two nuclear superpowers.

The agreement, which came into force in 2011, was extended in February 2021, just two days before it was due to expire. Joe Biden had made keeping New START a foreign-policy priority, securing Mr Putin’s support for the extension just six days after entering office. That was a contrast with the previous administration; Donald Trump had shown little interest in arms control. It meant that for a further five years deployable strategic nuclear warheads would be capped at 1,550 on both sides with further limits on “launchers”—ground-based ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers. Although it still leaves both sides with enough firepower to destroy civilised life on earth, the treaty nonetheless represents a 75% reduction in warheads since the end of the cold war.

Perhaps of even more importance than the numbers are the verification and transparency measures that underpin New START. These require both sides to allow at least 18 on-site inspections each year, the sharing of a wide-range of technical data as well as provisions for preventing the introduction of new systems that could undermine the principles of the treaty. Some 328 on-site inspections took place between 2011 and early 2020, when they were suspended during the covid-19 pandemic. Even when relations between the signatories were tricky, the weapons inspectors quietly and diligently got on with their jobs of making the world a slightly safer place.

When the treaty was extended in 2021, the Russians expressed satisfaction. The foreign ministry, emphasising the importance of maintaining strategic stability, said: “Considering the special responsibilities that Russia and the US carry as the world’s largest nuclear nations, the decision…guarantees a necessary level of predictability and transparency…while strictly maintaining a balance of interests.” At the time, both sides indicated a willingness to begin discussions about a successor agreement.

Mr Putin’s announcement, while intended to be dramatic, really did no more than confirm what was already happening. Inspections should have resumed after the pandemic interruption last year, despite the war in Ukraine. As concerns grew in Washington, a meeting was arranged for November to try to get back to implementation of the inspection regime. But the Russians pulled out before anything could be discussed. Mr Putin argues that with what he sees as a proxy war being fought by NATO to destroy his country, it is absurd to suppose that New START could continue to function as normal.

Given the Russian president’s weakness for nuclear braggadocio, his actions are hardly surprising. Russia may now go further and bust through the treaty’s caps on warheads and launchers. But it would be an act of self-harm to do so. Russia’s under-performing forces are desperate for more shells, conventional missiles and armoured vehicles. Getting into an unaffordable and destabilising new nuclear-arms race with America with all the risks of miscalculation that would come with it is the last thing the Kremlin needs. What Mr Putin (like Republican critics of New START in Congress) either forgets or misunderstands is that you negotiate arms-control agreements not with your friends but with your enemies.

Mr Putin’s intervention came just a few hours before Mr Biden, fresh from a trip to Ukraine on February 20th, appeared in Poland to make a forthright speech pledging America’s continued support for its NATO allies and for Ukraine. “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never,” Mr Biden insisted. ■